The week is loaded with headline reports. Which ones will land above the fold and move markets?
- Pending Home Sales will be delivered Monday.
- Manufacturing data releases start on Monday with Durable Goods Orders. The Chicago PMI will be released Tuesday, followed by the ISM Index Wednesday.
- The second estimate for first quarter Gross Domestic Product will be watched by investors as well as the Fed when it is announced on Tuesday.
- Consumer data is plentiful with the release of Consumer Confidence Tuesday, as well as Personal Income, Personal Spending and the inflation-reading Personal Consumption Expenditures Wednesday.
- The Fed's Beige Book is due out Wednesday.
- As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday.
- The non-manufacturing ISM Services Index will be released Friday.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further, a red 'candle' means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green 'candle' means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds prices have seesawed in recent weeks and rebounded. Despite recent volatility, home loan rates are still in attractive territory.